Banco de la República Interest Rate October 2026: 12.50% Expected

The Banco de la República board sets Colombia’s interest rate on Friday, October 30, 2026, and most analysts expect another hike. The policy rate anchors borrowing costs across Colombia, so it matters to anyone in Medellín who earns dollars and spends pesos.

Update note: this is a pre-decision preview published October 29. We will add the outcome and vote split here once Banrep announces it on October 30.

Quick answer: The Banco de la República (Banrep) interest rate has been 12.25% since September 30, 2026. In Anif’s survey, 13 of 19 entities expect a 25-basis-point hike to 12.50%, and the other six expect a hold. (A basis point, or bp, is one-hundredth of a percentage point.) The decision is due October 30, so this is a pre-decision preview; the official result will be on Banrep’s Board communiqués page.

Banco de la República interest rate: what analysts expect on October 30

The board raised the rate from 12.00% to 12.25% on September 30 (official communiqué), a move that surprised the market. According to Vanguardia, four co-directors voted for 25 bp, two voted to hold, and one voted for 50 bp.

For October, Anif’s most likely scenario is a split vote of 5–2, which it puts at 63.1% probability (per Portafolio’s report of the survey). Analysts at Grupo Cibest also expect 12.50%, El Colombiano reports.

A surprise is possible in either direction: in September, 16 of 22 analysts in Anif’s survey had expected a hold, and the board hiked anyway.

Why: inflation at 6.29%

DANE reported that annual inflation reached 6.29% in September (technical bulletin; press coverage), up from 6.24% in August. That is the highest reading since July 2024, per El Colombiano, and far above the bank’s 3% target.

Details from the Anif survey piece:

• Services inflation was 7.2%, and food was 6.7%; together they make up about 72% of annual inflation.
• Core inflation excluding food and regulated prices eased from 6.1% to 6.0%.
• Analysts’ median forecast for October inflation is 6.38%, and for year-end 2026 it is 6.80%.
• Anif ties part of the services pressure to the 23% minimum wage increase for 2026.

Medellín is not spared. Portafolio’s city breakdown lists Medellín with the highest annual city inflation in September, at 7.04%. We covered the same pattern in July in Medellín’s 6.95% inflation reading.

Date	Policy rate	Decision
June 30, 2026	12.00%	+75 bp from 11.25%, 4–2–1 vote (Vanguardia)
July 31, 2026	12.00%	Hold (Vanguardia)
September 30, 2026	12.25%	+25 bp, 4–2–1 vote (Vanguardia)
October 30, 2026	12.50% expected	Pending (Anif survey)

The peso: dollar near COP 3,150

The official exchange rate (TRM) for October 27 was COP 3,157.94 per dollar, according to Noticias RCN. The same Noticias RCN report puts the day’s close at COP 3,147.40, and says Medellín exchange houses were buying dollars at an average of about COP 3,060.

For context, the TRM was COP 3,341.23 on September 30, per our earlier coverage. That means the dollar is about 5.5% cheaper in pesos than on September 30 (our calculation, not a published figure). These numbers are as of October 27, 2026, and move daily.

Two outside factors are in play: the US Federal Reserve and market sentiment around the dollar. The Fed held its rate at 3.75%–4% on October 28, with two dissenters wanting a hike. Global66’s Rodrigo Lama said the Fed meeting was the main short-term driver of the dollar (Noticias RCN). Higher Colombian rates generally make peso assets more attractive; whether that holds after Friday depends on the decision and the Fed’s tone. For earlier swings, see our posts on the dollar above COP 3,200 in August and the central bank’s dollar purchase program.

What this means for expats

• Dollar earners: A stronger peso means each dollar buys fewer pesos than a month ago. If you pay rent in pesos, your cost in dollars has effectively risen. Avoid assuming today’s rate will hold; check the TRM before large transfers.
• Peso borrowers: Consumer and mortgage loans priced off the policy rate tend to get more expensive after a hike. Ask your bank whether your rate is fixed or floating.
• Peso savers: Peso CDs and savings products typically follow higher rates, but inflation near 6.3% eats into real returns. This is general context, not financial advice.
• Renters: Inflation feeds rent adjustments. Under Ley 820 de 2003, residential rent can rise only once every twelve months, by at most the prior calendar year’s IPC, so a landlord cannot pass this year’s inflation through mid-lease.

What to watch

The board’s statement is due after Friday’s meeting. Look at the vote split, the bank’s inflation forecast, and any comment on the exchange rate. The Banco de la República publishes decisions on its board communiqués page, and its minutes follow days later. Confirm the actual outcome there before acting on anything in this preview.

FAQ

What is Colombia’s interest rate now? Banco de la República’s policy rate is 12.25%, set on September 30, 2026 (Vanguardia).

When is the next Banrep decision? Friday, October 30, 2026. Analysts in Anif’s survey mostly expect a hike to 12.50%.

How does a hike affect expats paid in dollars? It can support the peso, which makes each dollar buy fewer pesos, while floating-rate peso loans get costlier. The effect depends on the Fed and market reaction, not the hike alone.