US Midterms and Colombia: Aid Conditions and the Peso

Quick answer: Expect conditions on US aid to Colombia, not cuts, and a peso that moved modestly: the dollar rose about 1.7% to 3,237 pesos on November 3 and eased to about 3,235 on November 4. Democrats are reported to have won control of both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections on November 3, according to El Colombiano and ColombiaOne; results were still being finalized as of November 4, so check the Associated Press for official race calls. For Medellín residents and visitors, what the US midterms mean for Colombia comes down to two things: a possible tightening of US aid and security cooperation, and a peso that moved with the vote.

What happened on November 3

Trump congratulated the Democrats and said he was willing to negotiate with them, especially on immigration, ColombiaOne reported. He also said he would keep using his veto on proposals he considers unacceptable.

What the US midterms mean for Colombia aid

El Colombiano’s reporting is mostly analyst opinion, not policy. Nothing has been legislated yet. The main points:

• Conditions on aid. Juliana Bustamante of Vértice Política Exterior said Democrats would likely attach conditions on human rights, respect for ethnic populations and protection of environmental defenders. She warned that “the honeymoon may end.”
• Aerial coca fumigation. Juan David Escobar of Universidad EAFIT said the demands could include banning aerial fumigation of coca.
• A limit on leverage. Escobar also noted that aid has already shrunk, so the room for retaliation is smaller. He said the bigger risk is the next US presidential election, two years away.
• Shield of the Americas. Rafael Piñeros of Universidad Externado said implementing the Escudo de las Américas security pact in Latin America and the Caribbean could be at risk from greater pressure from a Democratic-majority Congress.

What is the Shield of the Americas?

It is a US-led coalition against drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere, launched at a March 7, 2026 summit hosted by Trump in Florida. Cambio reports that Defense Minister Jorge Eduardo Mora signed Colombia’s adhesion in August 2026, after De la Espriella took office on August 7. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the move includes joint military operations, per Forbes Colombia; the details were not confirmed by the Colombian government in the sources we reviewed. We covered the Medellín angle in our Shield of the Americas piece.

The Meeks condition

Gregory Meeks, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is central here; he would be expected to chair it once the new Congress is seated in January if Democrats hold the House. According to El Espectador, as relayed by El Colombiano, he assured President De la Espriella of US$1 billion in cooperation, on the condition that it reaches the Pacific and vulnerable communities, with an ethnic focus. The Pacific region was hit hardest by the magnitude 7.4 earthquake of August 10, 2026, with its epicenter in Chocó (PAHO situation reports track the response); Bloomberg Línea reported a reconstruction bill of roughly US$10 billion. We could not locate the original El Espectador text, so treat the condition as reported, not confirmed.

That connects to the August pledge we covered in our piece on the $1 billion security aid. Piñeros also said De la Espriella “should have been more cautious” in publicly backing a candidate, Republican María Elvira Salazar, who won re-election by 1,325 votes per the same report (preliminary results as of November 4).

How the peso moved

The dollar rose on election day. El Colombiano reported that it closed at 3,237.14 pesos on November 3. The TRM (tasa representativa del mercado) is the official rate, an average of the prior trading day, so the gap between the TRM and the close approximates that day’s move. The outlet said markets were watching how the results could change Congress’s economic and fiscal decisions. It also cited stronger US GDP data and domestic pressure, including a proposed tax bill that would raise VAT on goods such as coffee and sugar to 19%.

Date	Dollar	Official TRM
Oct 31	3,183.40 (close)	n/a
Nov 3	3,237.14 (close)	3,182.99
Nov 4	about 3,235 (open)	3,235.59

On November 4 the dollar opened lower. El Colombiano tied the dip to the Democratic win and doubts over Trump’s economic agenda, plus a 0.6% drop in the US dollar index to 101.27, its lowest in a month. An analyst quoted there, Mauricio Acevedo, described a four-month sideways range of roughly 3,072 to 3,272 pesos.

These are single-day, intraday figures as of November 3–4, 2026. Check the current TRM at Banco de la República before you exchange money or sign a USD-priced rent.

What it means if you live in or visit Medellín

• Day to day: A US$1,000 USD-priced rent cost about 3,183,400 pesos at the October 31 close and about 3,237,140 at the November 3 close, roughly 53,700 pesos more. The swing is modest. At roughly 3,235 pesos per dollar, the moves reported above sit near the top of the recent 3,072–3,272 range. For context on the earlier slide, see our peso above 3,200 coverage.
• Rates: Colombia’s own policy rate matters as much as US politics. Our report on the Banco de la República’s October hold at 12.25% covers that.
• Aid and security: Any change is likely to come through conditions on funding, not abrupt cuts. Treat the analyst views above as expectations, not decisions.
• Politics to watch: Whether Meeks’s conditions become formal, and whether the Shield of the Americas faces congressional scrutiny.

FAQ

Will US aid to Colombia be cut after the midterms? Analysts quoted by El Colombiano expect conditions on human rights, environmental defenders and possibly aerial fumigation, not abrupt cuts. Nothing has been legislated.

What happened to the peso? The dollar closed at 3,237.14 pesos on November 3 and opened around 3,235 on November 4, near the top of a four-month range of roughly 3,072 to 3,272.

What is the Shield of the Americas? A US-led anti-cartel coalition launched in March 2026 that Colombia joined in August 2026; see the section above.

This is a news summary of cited reporting, not financial or legal advice.